On the 05 March, Peers for the Planet hosted the Climate Change Committee in parliament for a briefing on its Seventh Carbon Budget advice to the government.
The advice sets out the recommended level for the carbon budget period 2038-42 to be 535 MtCO2e, including emissions from international aviation and shipping. If this is achieved, emissions during this period will be a quarter of the level they are today, and 87% lower than levels in 1990.
The session explored the Balanced Pathway the CCC has outlined to demonstrate how this carbon budget can be achieved and was delivered by Interim Chair, Professor Piers Forster, CEO, Emma Pinchbeck, and Dr Eoin Devane who led the work.
Key takeaways included:
UK Progress: The UK has met each of its first three carbon budgets so far and since 1990 has halved its emissions. In these first three carbon budgets energy supply has driven emissions reductions, largely through phasing out coal power generation and ramping up the roll out of renewable electricity.
Future carbon budgets: Energy supply will play a decreasing role in future carbon budget periods, with surface transport and buildings playing a bigger role in emissions reduction. As we move towards the end of the net zero journey, we will see bigger contributions coming from decarbonising agriculture, land use changes and the use of engineered removals to close the final gap to net zero.
Costs: Overall, the CCC projects the GDP effects of Net Zero could be positive, with savings outweighing investment costs between 2038 to 2042 and continuing to grow towards 2050. Even if negative, they will be smaller than the costs of unmitigated climate change. Some form of support will likely be needed to help some households overcome the upfront cost in areas such as low-carbon heating.
Savings: From around the Seventh Carbon Budget we could see net savings to the economy which grow out to 2050. This includes savings on running costs once households and businesses switch to more efficient electric technology, potentially reducing driving and home energy costs by around £700 a year each.
Investment needs: The private sector could fund 65-90% of the financing requirement for infrastructure and new technologies from 2025 to 2050, if the right incentives are in place. There is also a role for public spending, especially in meeting the one-off costs of building improvements and to manage the distribution of costs and savings. However, the CCC estimates this will never exceed 2% of total managed annual public expenditure.
It will now be up to the government to consider the CCC’s advice and propose a level for the Seventh Carbon Budget to Parliament by June 2026.
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